Ecological niche shifts and climate-driven expansion of invasive Pomacea spp. (Caenogastropoda: Ampullariidae) in China

Predicting future distributions of invasive species provides a proactive management approach, enabling early detection and rapid response to prevent devastating ecological and economic impacts. The genus Pomacea belongs to Ampullariidae (Caenogastropoda). As an important invasive species, it has brought devastating damage and threats to agriculture and the ecological environment. To explore the distribution dynamics of invasive Pomacea spp. Under climate change scenarios, we established an optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model using species occurrence records and environmental variables. This model predicted the spatial and temporal changes in suitable habitats for Pomacea spp., providing a theoretical basis for targeted management strategies. Modeling results reflected current distributions and revealed a future trend of expansion towards higher altitudes and latitudes for invasive Pomacea spp. In China, the current highly suitable areas for invasive Pomacea spp. Occur primarily in the East and South regions. With climate warming, the suitable habitat for invasive Pomacea spp. Will gradually expand towards the northwest. Furthermore, there is a potential future risk of invasion by invasive Pomacea spp. in southern Xizang, China. The future trend of expansion and potential risks of invasive Pomacea spp. require particular attention, especially in scenarios of SSP585, where the expansion of its suitable habitat may pose greater threats to agricultural production, ecosystems, and human health. Therefore, effective management and control measures should be formulated and adjusted in consideration of climate change trends to mitigate the negative impacts of invasive Pomacea spp. • Environmental factors limit the further invasion of Pomacea in China. • The suitable environment in East Asia is a prerequisite for the rapid invasion of Pomacea. • Development of appropriate defense and control measures for areas with additional highly suitable habitats is needed. • Suitable areas primarily in the northwest of China are expected to expand in the future.