Shaking up the vote: The electoral impact of induced earthquakes

Scholars of environmental politics and voting often use natural disasters as a proxy for environmental shocks. However, the simultaneously human and natural origins of these disasters muddle their connection to political outcomes. We look at an overtly human-caused disaster − earthquakes induced by gas drilling in the Netherlands − to see whether it correlates with pro-environment voting. Combining polling station-level voting data with precisely calculated measures of earthquake impact, we find that Green Party vote share is higher in affected locations, especially in provinces adjacent to but removed from the drilling due to non-linear effects of disasters on voting. These findings suggest that environmental shocks strengthen preferences for Green parties, a relationship that will become increasingly important as environmental conditions worsen.