Monitoring Dendrolimus punctatus Walker Infestations Using Sentinel-2: A Monthly Time-Series Approach

Infestations of Dendrolimus punctatus Walker (D. punctatus) pose significant threats to forest ecosystem health, necessitating accurate and efficient monitoring for sustainable forest management. A monthly monitoring framework integrating spectral bands, vegetation indices, time-series features, meteorological variables, and topographic characteristics was developed. First, cloud-free Sentinel-2 composites were generated via median synthesis, and training samples were selected by integrating GF-1/2 data. Subsequently, a Weighted Composite Index (WCI) was constructed through logistic regression to quantitatively classify infestation severity levels. Meanwhile, time-series features extracted from vegetation indices were incorporated to characterize temporal damage dynamics. Finally, Random Forest (RF) models were then trained for monthly monitoring, achieving overall accuracies exceeding 86.9% with Kappa coefficients ranging from 0.825 to 0.858. The Inverted Red Edge Chlorophyll Index (IRECI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) exhibited the highest sensitivity to D. punctatus damage and thus received the greatest weights in the WCI. Time-series features ranked second in importance after vegetation indices, substantially enhancing model performance. Monitoring results from 2019 to 2024 revealed that D. punctatus infestation in Qianshan City exhibited an occurrence pattern progressing from mild to severe and from scattered to aggregated distributions, with major outbreak periods in 2019, 2021, and 2023 reflecting characteristic cyclical dynamics. This study advances existing quantitative monitoring methodologies for D. punctatus and provides technical support and a scientific foundation for precision pest monitoring and forest health management.