Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity and Driving Mechanisms of Rural Resilience in a Karst River Basin: A Case Study of the Wujiang River Basin, China

The unique geo-ecological conditions of karst river basins (KRBs) heighten rural vulnerability to compound disturbances; therefore, enhanced rural resilience (RR) is critical for regional ecological security and sustainable development. In this study, the Wujiang River Basin was chosen as the study area. A comprehensive evaluation index system was first established to assess RR. Key driving factors were identified using the Optimal Parameters-based Geographical Detector (OPGD) mode. The Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model was then applied to analyze the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the driving mechanisms of RR. Our results show that from 2010 to 2022: (1) RR in the study area increased significantly, and disparities among counties decreased notably, indicating a trend toward more balanced regional development. (2) RR displayed strong positive spatial autocorrelation, with spatial clusters evolving dynamically under the influence of policy interventions and environmental constraints. (3) The main drivers of spatial heterogeneity in RR included urban–rural income disparity, road network density, agricultural machinery power, etc. Their driving mechanisms exhibited significant spatiotemporal non-stationarity. The findings inform the development of targeted strategies to enhance regional resilience. Additionally, the methodology and empirical insights can serve as valuable references for RR research and practice in other similar KRBs worldwide.