From credit to crisis: the impact of distress-driven and opportunity-driven multiple borrowing on loan repayment

Purpose This research seeks to quantify the effects of distress-driven multiple borrowing (DDMB) and opportunity-driven multiple borrowing (ODMB) on loan repayment (LRP) by examining the moderating influence of dynamic incentives (DIN) and the mediating role of over-indebtedness (OID) in the context of microfinance institutions (MFIs) in Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach In this study, primary data were collected from the 519 potential borrowers of MFIs through the structured questionnaire by employing the stratified sampling technique. This study employed a two-stage structural equation modeling technique for data analysis. At the first stage, measurement model is applied to assess the validity and reliability of the data collection instrument. At the second stage, a structural model was applied to evaluate the study's proposed hypothesis through PLS-SEM bootstrapping. Findings This study found a positive and significant impact of DDMB and ODMB not only on OID but also on LRP. In addition, this study validates the mediating role of OID between the DDMB and LRP, as well as between ODMB and LRP. Besides this, this study fails to prove the moderating role of DIN on the relationship of DDMB and LRP but validates the moderating role of DIN on the relationship of ODMB and LRP. Originality/value This study offers original insights by distinguishing between distress-driven and opportunity-driven multiple borrowing, exploring their differential impacts on loan repayment performance in the context of microfinance. The findings can help MFIs design more targeted interventions, improving loan performance and reducing over-indebtedness risks among distinct borrower segments.