Eco‐Environmental Effects and Driving Forces of Land Use Transition in the Yellow River Delta

ABSTRACT Analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution and driving forces of land‐use change in the Yellow River Delta is essential for optimizing territorial spatial layout, enhancing ecological protection, and advancing high‐quality regional development. This study is intended to clarify the quantitative link between land‐use transitions and ecological environmental effects, providing an analytical basis for revealing their coupling mechanisms and future land‐use trajectories. Drawing upon land‐use data from 1980 to 2020, this study integrated the ecological quality index, ecological contribution rate, and the Patch‐generating Land Use Simulation model to conduct a quantitative assessment of land‐use transformation and its ecological implications. It also projected the land‐use layout in 2030 under three scenarios. The findings indicated a continuous expansion of production and living space. During the early phase of the study period, ecological space consistently declined, indicating a transition from ecological to production land. Toward the end of the period, ecological space gradually recovered. The ecological quality index rose from 0.279 to 0.326, with a moderate increase in the area categorized as high‐quality. Temperature, population density, and proximity to tertiary roads were identified as key drivers of land‐use transitions. Scenario‐based forecasts suggest that ecological land will experience limited growth by 2030. Therefore, restricting the encroachment of productive land on ecological space is vital for promoting long‐term sustainability in the region.