A decision-support model of icebreaker prepositioning for northern sea route navigation: A weighted-demand approach

• NSR navigation is risky due to the spatial and temporal variability of ice conditions. • Demand for icebreaking services fluctuates with variations in ice conditions. • Prepositioning icebreakers at the optimal location increases NSR competitiveness. • Prepositioning location is optimised with a weighted-demand response model. • Pevek Port consistently emerges as the highest-priority prepositioning location. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) has gained prominence as an international maritime corridor due to the retreat of Arctic sea ice, offering significant distance and time savings, particularly for shipping between Asia and Europe compared to conventional maritime routes. However, navigating the NSR involves considerable risks due to severe ice conditions along its navigation paths, making efficient icebreaking services critical for safe and reliable operations. The demand for icebreakers fluctuates spatially and temporally, depending on sea ice conditions and the ice class of cargo vessels. Additionally, icebreaking costs constitute a substantial portion of the overall voyage costs along the NSR. Strategically prepositioning icebreakers at optimum locations can help reduce these costs, enabling cargo vessels to request services more efficiently and minimize response times. This study focuses on the preparation stage of icebreaking services and introduces a weighted-demand response model to determine the optimum prepositioning of icebreakers before serving cargo vessels. The model considers expected vessel movements, navigation paths, and prevailing ice conditions. Eight Russian seaports are evaluated as potential prepositioning locations, and six ice classes—IC, IB, IA, IA-super, PC6, and PC5 are considered. The findings reveal that the optimum prepositioning locations and their priorities vary monthly in response to changing ice conditions, the composition of ice-class vessels, and their navigation directions. Moreover, Pevek Port consistently emerged as the highest-priority prepositioning location in most months. This study highlights the operational and policy implications of optimizing icebreaking services to reduce operating costs and improve the competitiveness of the NSR as an international maritime corridor.