General Artificial Intelligence and the US–PRC Arms Race: Reflections on Global Militarization

This study examines the impact of accelerating General Artificial Intelligence (GAI) on strategic deterrence and the adaptation of International Humanitarian Law (IHL). It asks two questions: (1) how does GAI reshape deterrence between the United States and the People’s Republic of China, and (2) how effectively do current international legal frameworks govern the export, deployment, and use of AI-enabled military systems? The paper combines a comparative analysis of official defense doctrines, a quantitative review of defense-related AI investment trends, and a foresight approach to map plausible strategic trajectories. The study finds that GAI accelerates the convergence of military activity across cyberspace, outer space, and uncrewed systems, and promotes a technology-centric deterrence built around autonomous platforms and integrated decision-support architectures. It identifies concrete legal gaps – especially in export controls, attribution and accountability regimes, and the absence of enforceable verification mechanisms – within current IHL and arms-control instruments. The article proposes practical measures, including transparent certification and testing standards for high-risk AI systems, multilateral mechanisms for monitoring and verification, and the integration of ethical and accountability criteria into national defense doctrines. The implications for deterrence stability and lawmaking in an era of rapid GAI diffusion are discussed.