Projecting the Effects of Climate-Driven Migration and Development on Heritage Resources: An Example from the Midwestern United States

Abstract We combine mathematical modeling, population growth data, archaeological survey data, and GIS analysis to project that tens of thousands of archaeological sites will be destroyed by development in Illinois by the year 2100. Climate-driven migration from less hospitable areas of the United States is likely to contribute to the growth and expansion of existing municipalities, converting millions of hectares of natural and agricultural land into urban land. A scenario of 1% annual growth over the next 80 years will impact about 55,000 sites in the state, most of which are undocumented. The damage is likely to be even more severe in other areas of the world as the global trends of population increase and urbanization accelerate the expansion of large urban areas in archaeologically rich regions.