Prediction of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Using Machine Learning, Clinical Summary Notes, and Vital Signs: A Single-Center Retrospective Cohort Study in the United States

<b>Introduction:</b> Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Early identification and timely intervention for COPD exacerbations can reduce hospitalizations and complications, as well as improve patient outcomes. <b>Methods:</b> To develop and evaluate predictive models for COPD exacerbations using machine learning (ML), we performed a retrospective study using intensive care unit patient records. Records including 31,667 clinical notes and 10,489 vital signs were used to train and validate two machine learning models to predict COPD exacerbations in patients with known or suspected COPD. Predictive performance was evaluated for support vector machine, quadratic discriminant analysis, and adaptive boosting algorithms using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). <b>Results:</b> The clinical note-based support vector machine model achieved an AUC of 0.81 and accuracy of 84.0% in predicting COPD exacerbations. Data from patient monitors and hospital information systems provided sufficient information for accurate prediction, demonstrating the utility of combining physiological signals with clinical text data. <b>Discussion:</b> Clinically available patient data and vital signs can effectively predict COPD exacerbations, potentially enabling earlier interventions, improved outcomes, and reduced healthcare burden. These findings suggest that integrating unstructured clinical notes with structured vital signs using ML frameworks may improve early detection of exacerbation risk, thus enabling appropriate patient counseling, triage, and treatment based on COPD severity.