Lithospheric thickness controls asymmetric mantle plume spreading and metallogenesis in the Tarim Large Igneous Province–Central Asian Orogenic Belt System

• Lithospheric thickness controls asymmetric mantle plume spreading in orogens. • Plume thermal anomalies correlate with Ni-Cu mineralization in thin lithosphere zones. • Pre-existing faults channel plume materials, explaining ore formation in orogens. The dynamic interactions between mantle plumes and continental collision zones are still inadequately defined or poorly understood. Focusing on the Early Permian Tarim LIP and the adjacent Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB), this study employs a Random Forest–based tectonic affinity prediction model (98 % accuracy) to quantitatively evaluate the relative contributions of distinct mantle components (subduction-modified, asthenospheric, and plume-related) in 461 basalt samples. Combined with lithospheric thickness reconstruction via Y/Yb ratios, we demonstrate that: (1) the influence of the Tarim mantle plume extended northward into the CAOB, but was deflected into an east–west trajectory upon encountering the thick lithosphere (>70 km) of the Yili Block; (2) within the orogen, ocean island basalt (OIB)-affinity anomalies (e.g., East Tianshan, Junggar) are spatially consistent with thin lithosphere zones (55–65 km), and clusters of Ni–Cu sulfide deposits; and (3) major trans -lithospheric faults served as preferential conduits for plume upwelling. These findings provide a “channel–barrier” model where lithospheric thickness variations control plume spreading asymmetry, with preexisting structural weaknesses regulating spatial distribution. This study establishes a methodological framework for plume identification and Ni–Cu sulfide exploration in analogous settings, with broad implications for deep Earth material cycles and lithosphere–mineralization interactions.