Optimizing CO2 Concentrations and Emissions Based on the WRF-Chem Model Integrated with the 3DVAR and EAKF Methods

This study developed a multi-source data assimilation system based on the WRF-Chem model integrated with 3DVAR and EAKF methods. By assimilating a multi-source satellite fused XCO2 concentration dataset, the system achieved simultaneous optimization of CO2 concentration fields and emission fluxes over China. During the December 2019 experiment, the system successfully reconstructed high-precision CO2 concentration fields and dynamically corrected the MEIC inventory through emission error inversion derived from concentration differences before and after assimilation. Comparative analysis with the EDGAR inventory demonstrated the superior performance of the EAKF method, which reduced RMSE by 56% and increased the correlation coefficient to 0.360, while the 3DVAR method achieved a 9% RMSE reduction and improved the correlation coefficient to 0.294. In terms of total emissions, 3DVAR and EAKF increased national emissions by 13.6% and 5.1%, respectively, but reduced emissions in Xinjiang by 3.24 MT and 7.99 MT. A comparison of three simulation scenarios (prior emissions, 3DVAR-optimized, and EAKF-optimized) showed significant improvement over the EGG4 dataset, with systematic bias decreasing by approximately 75% and RMSE reduced by about 49%. The assimilation algorithm developed in this study provides a reliable methodological support for regional carbon monitoring and can be extended to multi-pollutant emissions and high-resolution satellite data integration.