Enhancing Energy Market Forecasting with Graph Convolutional Networks: A Multi-Node Time-Series Analysis Framework

Accurate multi-node energy market forecasting is critical for secure and economic grid operation under increasing penetration of renewable energy and electric vehicles. This paper proposes a physics-aware spatiotemporal forecasting framework that integrates Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) for modeling network-level spatial dependencies with a self-attention mechanism for capturing long-range temporal correlations. Unlike existing GCN + RNN or attention-based forecasting approaches, physical feasibility is enforced during learning through structured penalty terms reflecting power balance, generation limits, EV state-of-charge dynamics, and AC load flow constraints, rather than via post-processing optimization. The model is evaluated on a synthetic IEEE 24-bus benchmark with realistic load scaling, renewable variability, and EV charging profiles. Results show a mean squared error of 1.84 MW2 and a 7–10% reduction in forecasting error relative to baseline ARIMA and LSTM models, while maintaining constraint violation rates below 5%. Multi-step forecasting experiments demonstrate stable error growth under high volatility conditions. The proposed framework establishes a bridge between purely data-driven forecasting and physically consistent grid-aware prediction, offering a scalable foundation for operationally feasible energy market forecasting.

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Publication Details

Journal
Energies
Published
2026-01-05
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/en19010280
Primary Topic
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
Type
article
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article

Enhancing Energy Market Forecasting with Graph Convolutional Networks: A Multi-Node Time-Series Analysis Framework

Josué Ngondo Otshwe, Yi Kang, Bing Qi, Qi Guo et al.
Energies
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
article

Enhancing Energy Market Forecasting with Graph Convolutional Networks: A Multi-Node Time-Series Analysis Framework

Josué Ngondo Otshwe, Yi Kang, Bing Qi, Qi Guo, Jaime Chabrol Ngouokoua, Bin Li, Christian Mugisho Tabaro
article en

Abstract

Accurate multi-node energy market forecasting is critical for secure and economic grid operation under increasing penetration of renewable energy and electric vehicles. This paper proposes a physics-aware spatiotemporal forecasting framework that integrates Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) for modeling network-level spatial dependencies with a self-attention mechanism for capturing long-range temporal correlations. Unlike existing GCN + RNN or attention-based forecasting approaches, physical feasibility is enforced during learning through structured penalty terms reflecting power balance, generation limits, EV state-of-charge dynamics, and AC load flow constraints, rather than via post-processing optimization. The model is evaluated on a synthetic IEEE 24-bus benchmark with realistic load scaling, renewable variability, and EV charging profiles. Results show a mean squared error of 1.84 MW2 and a 7–10% reduction in forecasting error relative to baseline ARIMA and LSTM models, while maintaining constraint violation rates below 5%. Multi-step forecasting experiments demonstrate stable error growth under high volatility conditions. The proposed framework establishes a bridge between purely data-driven forecasting and physically consistent grid-aware prediction, offering a scalable foundation for operationally feasible energy market forecasting.

EnergiesVol. 19(1)
North China Electric Power University (CN), University of Kindu (CD), Inner Mongolia Electric Power (China) (CN), University of Science and Technology Beijing (CN)
Affordable and clean energy
Openalex Percentile: Top 97%
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
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Enhancing Energy Market Forecasting with Graph Convolutional Networks: A Multi-Node Time-Series Analysis Framework — Josué Ngondo Otshwe, Yi Kang, et al. · Energies (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS