Evaluating the Predictive Power of Pre-Competition Physical Fitness Tests on Fencing Performance in Fencing Tournaments

This study investigates the relationship between pre-competition physical fitness test results and competitive performance in elite fencing. Using data from the 2025 Chinese National Fencing Tournament, we analyzed standardized physical test scores, including total fitness scores and individual components, to evaluate their predictive power for athletes’ national rankings. Multiple linear regression results showed that the full set of fitness measures was not a significant predictor of performance (R² = 0.063, p = 0.2165). However, two individual indicators, lunge depth and firm fork index (a measure of split flexibility and lower body control), were significantly associated with better competitive rankings (p = 0.025 and p = 0.0043, respectively). Total fitness score and 400 m run performance approached significance, suggesting potential secondary effects of overall conditioning and anaerobic capacity. These findings highlight the importance of lower body flexibility, reach capacity, and explosive control in high-level fencing, suggesting that training programs should prioritize enhancing these attributes alongside technical and tactical development. These results offer practical implications for coaches and trainers by highlighting specific physical attributes that may be prioritized in training and athlete evaluation. More broadly, the findings demonstrate how integrating performance data with sport-specific biomechanics can improve the effectiveness of standardized testing systems in competitive fencing.