A Novel Ultra-Short-Term PV Power Forecasting Method Based on a Temporal Attention-Variable Parallel Fusion Encoder Network

Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is critical for the stable operation of power systems. Existing methods rely solely on historical data, which significantly decline in forecasting accuracy at 3–4 h ahead. To address this problem, a novel ultra-short-term PV power forecasting method based on temporal attention-variable parallel fusion encoder network is proposed to enhance the stability of forecasting results by incorporating Numerical Weather Prediction data to correct temporal predictions. Specifically, independent encoding modules are constructed for both historical power sequences and future NWP sequences, enabling deep feature extraction of their respective temporal characteristics. During the decoding phase, a two-stage coupled decoding strategy is employed: for 1–8 steps predictions, the model relies solely on temporal features, while for 9–16 steps horizons, it dynamically fuses encoded information from historical power data and future NWP inputs. This approach allows for accurate characterization of future trend dynamics. Experimental results demonstrate that, compared with conventional methods, the proposed model reduces the average normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) at 4th ultra-short-term forecasting by 0.50–5.20%, while it improves the R2 by 0.047–0.362, validating the effectiveness of the proposed approach.