A standardized indicator reveals sharper increases in heat related mortality in temperate zone cities worldwide
Global warming is intensifying heat risks globally, yet understanding of these rising risks on a global scale remains limited. We introduce a standardized heat-sensitivity indicator (ΔRR)-the change in relative risk (RR) per 1 °C above the minimum mortality temperature (MMT)-which enables like-for-like comparisons across heterogeneous city studies. Using ΔRR, we quantify how sensitively heat-related mortality responds to incremental warming rather than only to extremes. This study reveals that over a latitude of around 40°N, development inequality disrupts the patterns of heat risk variability, and high-risk cities primarily cluster in ranges with temperatures between 10 °C and 22 °C. These findings emphasize the urgent need for more focus on cities in temperate zones. Our results also position ΔRR as a transferable metric for global surveillance, comparison, and planning of heat-health adaptation.
Authors
- Lei Ma (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0000-5729-1484)
- Heng Lu
- Ying Liang
- Xuan Wang
- Guangjun He
Institutions
- Sichuan University (CN)
- Space Engineering University (CN)
- State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering
- Nanjing University (CN)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Scientific Reports
- Published
- 2026-01-05
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-21897-4
- Primary Topic
- Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00