A standardized indicator reveals sharper increases in heat related mortality in temperate zone cities worldwide

Global warming is intensifying heat risks globally, yet understanding of these rising risks on a global scale remains limited. We introduce a standardized heat-sensitivity indicator (ΔRR)-the change in relative risk (RR) per 1 °C above the minimum mortality temperature (MMT)-which enables like-for-like comparisons across heterogeneous city studies. Using ΔRR, we quantify how sensitively heat-related mortality responds to incremental warming rather than only to extremes. This study reveals that over a latitude of around 40°N, development inequality disrupts the patterns of heat risk variability, and high-risk cities primarily cluster in ranges with temperatures between 10 °C and 22 °C. These findings emphasize the urgent need for more focus on cities in temperate zones. Our results also position ΔRR as a transferable metric for global surveillance, comparison, and planning of heat-health adaptation.

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Publication Details

Journal
Scientific Reports
Published
2026-01-05
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-21897-4
Primary Topic
Climate Change and Health Impacts
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

A standardized indicator reveals sharper increases in heat related mortality in temperate zone cities worldwide

Lei Ma, Heng Lu, Ying Liang, Xuan Wang et al.
Scientific Reports
Climate Change and Health Impacts
article

A standardized indicator reveals sharper increases in heat related mortality in temperate zone cities worldwide

Lei Ma, Heng Lu, Ying Liang, Xuan Wang, Guangjun He
article en

Abstract

Global warming is intensifying heat risks globally, yet understanding of these rising risks on a global scale remains limited. We introduce a standardized heat-sensitivity indicator (ΔRR)-the change in relative risk (RR) per 1 °C above the minimum mortality temperature (MMT)-which enables like-for-like comparisons across heterogeneous city studies. Using ΔRR, we quantify how sensitively heat-related mortality responds to incremental warming rather than only to extremes. This study reveals that over a latitude of around 40°N, development inequality disrupts the patterns of heat risk variability, and high-risk cities primarily cluster in ranges with temperatures between 10 °C and 22 °C. These findings emphasize the urgent need for more focus on cities in temperate zones. Our results also position ΔRR as a transferable metric for global surveillance, comparison, and planning of heat-health adaptation.

Scientific ReportsVol. 16(1)
Sichuan University (CN), Space Engineering University (CN), State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Nanjing University (CN)
Sustainable cities and communities
Openalex Percentile: Top 98%
Climate Change and Health Impacts
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