Study on the Influence Mechanism of Extreme Precipitation on Rice Yield in Hunan from 2000 to 2023 and the Countermeasures of Agricultural Production

Hunan Province from 2000 to 2023 is the study area. Based on NOAA precipitation data and county-level rice yield statistics in Hunan Province, the Mann–Kendall test, extreme precipitation indices, and wavelet analysis examine the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation and its multi-scale impact on rice yield. The results show that the extreme precipitation in Hunan Province showed a stable pattern of fluctuation, and the main extreme precipitation indexes had no significant change trend. The spatial distribution showed a pattern of “high value in central-northern Hunan and stable in southern Hunan”, and the precipitation was concentrated in June–August. The rice yield showed the characteristics of “stable increase in the core area, intensified fluctuation in the transition area, and continuous shrinkage in the marginal area”, and the Dongting Lake Plain was a high-yield and stable area. Multi-scale analysis shows significant coupling between extreme precipitation and yield: in the 4–8-year cycle, the peak value of precipitation lags behind the response of 1–2 years, and changes synchronously in a short period. The response of rice to extreme precipitation showed a threshold-type nonlinear characteristic. Moderate wetting was beneficial to stable yield, while the yield decreased significantly when the intensity or continuous precipitation exceeded the threshold. Hunan’s rice system has strong climate resilience but requires a multi-scale climate-adaptive agricultural system via engineering, technology, and policy for long-term stability and sustainable grain production.