Impact of cultivated land use transformation on agricultural green total factor productivity—a case study of the Yellow River Basin

Introduction Cultivated land resources are essential for maintaining food security and promoting agricultural economic growth. However, the reduction in cultivated land area and environmental contamination have hindered the sustainable and healthy development of agriculture. Understanding the impact of cultivated land use transformation (CLUT) on agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP) is therefore a crucial step toward advancing sustainable agriculture. Methods This study utilizes panel data from 62 cities in the Yellow River Basin between 2000 and 2020. We employ the entropy weight method to assess cultivated land use transformation, and the super-efficient non-radial SBM model with the GML index to measure AGTFP. A two-way fixed effects model is established to examine the influence of CLUT on AGTFP. Results The findings indicate that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the CLUT index showed a fluctuating upward trend, peaking in the southeastern regions and being lowest in the central areas, indicating a movement toward regional equalization. (2) AGTFP also exhibited an overall fluctuating rise, with substantial growth concentrated in the middle and lower reaches and the central part of the upstream section. Productivity growth in the upstream and midstream sectors was mainly driven by efficiency change (EC), whereas the downstream sector was advanced by technical change (TC). (3) Cultivated land use transformation significantly contributes to AGTFP, with a stronger effect observed in major grain-producing areas and eastern regions. Both functional and modal transitions of cultivated land use significantly promote AGTFP, with modal transitions being more effective. In major grain-producing areas and production-marketing balance areas, both types of transformations promoted AGTFP, though functional transformation had a greater effect in major grain-producing areas. Discussion This paper provides mechanistic and empirical evidence on how cultivated land use transformation affects AGTFP from a spatio-temporal perspective. The results offer a scientific reference for formulating policies to ensure food security and promote high-quality development in the agricultural economy.