Conceptual modeling: Interactions and intersections of risks impacting the energy transition

The energy transition is a multifaceted process influenced by economic, technical, social, environmental, and political-regulatory factors, whose interactions generate risks that can affect its overall viability. Existing literature often examines these risks in isolation, limiting understanding of their interdependence and the cascading effects resulting from their interaction. This study aims to identify and analyze the principal risks constraining the energy transition and to model their intersections and interactions from a systemic perspective. To achieve this objective, a conceptual analysis was conducted based on a systematic review of 254 articles published between 2000 and 2024, complemented by system dynamics tools to visually and structurally represent the identified relationships. The proposed methodological approach enabled the identification, classification, and comparison of the main risks associated with the energy transition, organized into five categories. Their interactions and intersections were mapped using co-occurrence matrices, Venn diagrams, and causal loop representations. The results reveal that the economic and political-regulatory risks exhibit greater centrality than previously reported in the literature, while the social dimension remains underestimated despite its critical importance for societal acceptance and legitimacy of the transition. Moreover, previously underexplored risks combinations, such as social-environmental and technical-political intersections, were identified, representing relevant gaps for future research. The findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of systemic vulnerabilities in the energy transition and provide a conceptual framework to support decision-making and the formulation of integrated public policies and strategies for sustainable energy planning.