Statistical assessment of regional asymmetry in bank lending in Ukraine

The recovery of economic growth in Ukraine is hampered by the increasing differentiation of bank lending, which creates a number of problems for the state: the emergence of depressed regions, increased social tension, etc. The increase in regional differences in the banking lending system gives rise to centripetal tendencies, which “overlap” with the tendencies of increasing territorial stratification and lead to the emergence of peculiar geographical points with a high concentration of banking resources. The aim of this article was to statistically assess the regional asymmetry of bank lending in Ukraine, as well as to develop the main directions for improving monetary policy in terms of redistributing credit resources in order to reduce the differentiation of bank lending. The study used statistical methods to assess the regional differentiation of bank lending. A statistical analysis of the differentiation of bank lending in Ukraine was conducted. It was found that the process of regional lending is characterised as asymmetric, although in recent years there has been a slowdown in the processes of differentiation of bank lending. Overall, across all regions, the variation in the volume of loans issued to non-financial corporations has steadily decreased from 38.6% in 2021 to 14.1% in 2024. At the same time, a slowdown in regional asymmetry in bank lending was observed for certain types of economic activity. Thus, the coefficient of variation in lending to manufacturing enterprises decreased from 66.1% in 2021 to 31.5% in 2024. A reduction in regional asymmetry in bank lending can be achieved by withdrawing and redistributing credit resources from other regions. According to calculations, the introduction of a 50% standard for lending to trade and real estate transactions in Kyiv could free up an additional UAH 78.0 billion, which is 10.1% of the total volume of loans provided to non-financial corporations in Ukraine. If the standard is reduced from 50% to 30%, the additional amount of credit resources that can be redirected to other regions will increase to UAH 127.8 billion, or 16.5% of the total volume of loans. The results of the study can be used in the development of monetary policy measures to reduce regional differentiation in bank lending to non-financial corporations