Virtual Water and Agricultural Sustainability: Unraveling the Trade–Water Nexus in Ecuador’s Crop Sector Through Empirical Modeling

Freshwater scarcity increasingly constrains agricultural sustainability and global food security, particularly where crop production and trade shape national water balances. This study quantifies Ecuador’s green (soil moisture/rainfall) and blue (surface and groundwater) virtual water flows associated with seven strategic crops (banana, cocoa, pineapple, maize, rice, barley and potato) from 2000 to 2023 using the Hoekstra–Mekonnen accounting framework, and FAOSTAT production and bilateral trade data. Furthermore, Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition analysis was applied to identify the key drivers influencing virtual water trade, including economic growth, population, product structure, and water intensity. Results reveal that Ecuador operates as a persistent net exporter of virtual water, with export flows dominated by green water, reflecting the country’s reliance on rainfall-supported production. Virtual water exports increased from 3000 to >15,000 Mm3·yr−1 over the study period, while imports remained substantially smaller, confirming Ecuador’s structurally export-oriented agricultural economy. The LMDI outcomes show that export growth is driven primarily by economic expansion (8.28 × 108 m3) and shifts in the crop export mix, partially offset by improvements in water intensity. These findings highlight Ecuador’s vulnerability to trade-related water pressures and demonstrate the value of virtual water indicators for guiding water governance and SDG-aligned trade strategies, thereby promoting the decoupling of economic growth from water resource consumption and connecting virtual water trade to domestic water scarcity.