From Past to Future: Risk Assessment and Identification of Susceptible Areas to Extreme Precipitation Under Changing Climate Across the Middle East

ABSTRACT The Middle East, with its diverse geography and complex environments, is among the world's most vulnerable regions to climate change and particularly susceptible to extreme precipitation events (EPEs). This study develops a probabilistic risk assessment for EPEs, identifying high‐risk zones for heavy rainfall through analysis of daily precipitation data, including ERA5 (1941–2020) and CMIP6 models under two scenarios: SSP2‐4.5, SSP5‐8.5 (2021–2100). By considering the trends of extreme precipitation indices (EPIs), the findings categorise areas into four distinct risk levels, ranging from no risk to high risk, with statistical significance tested at the 5% level. Cells with significant positive EPIs trends and overlapping index signals were identified as high‐risk, forming a spatially explicit risk map. The ‘most agreed‐upon risk level’ was employed to combine and integrate the results across the different models. The analysis reveals that while medium‐ and high‐risk extents remain relatively stable under SSP2‐4.5, 16% of areas classified as “no risk” during the historical period shift to “low‐risk.” The results are even more pronounced under the SSP5‐8.5, where almost 80% of the region falls into the “at risk” categories. Specifically, 35% of the region is classified as “high‐risk” in the most extreme climate scenario and indicate a significant shift, with a majority of previously “no and low‐risk” areas transitioning into the high‐risk categories by 2100. Notably, northwestern and western Iran, along with northern and central Turkey consistently appear as “high‐risk” zones across all analyses, from historical part through both future scenarios, highlighting their persistent susceptibility to extreme rainfall. These findings give confidence to the potential impacts of flooding and infrastructure challenges in regions unfamiliar to dealing with heavy rainfall. This information is important for water management strategies that are part of preparing for climate change impacts, which clearly emphasise the rise in extreme weather patterns across the Middle East.