From Overlapping Claims to Shared Futures: Addressing Land Use Conflicts through Spatially-Explicit Scenario Planning

Land use conflicts are increasingly widespread and complex, driven by overlapping spatial claims, intensifying competition over natural resources, and growing socio-environmental vulnerabilities. These conflicts are particularly acute in territories where economic, ecological, and social priorities intersect, and where planning systems often lack the spatial sensitivity and participatory mechanisms necessary to mediate competing interests. This study focus on spatially-explicit scenario planning as a key approach for anticipating, identifying, and managing land use conflicts. Grounded in geospatial analysis, participatory foresight, and sustainability science, this approach enables the co-production of spatially grounded narratives of possible futures, while enhancing territorial governance, stakeholder engagement, and transparency in decision-making processes. Emphasis is placed on the dual role of spatial scenarios: both as technical tools for mapping conflict dynamics and as platforms for dialogue among actors with divergent claims. This study advocates a paradigm shift in land use planning that is forward-looking, spatially informed, and socially inclusive. Such a shift is essential to support sustainability transitions and promote more resilient, and negotiated territorial futures.