Multi-Factor Driving Force Analysis of Soil Salinization in Desert–Oasis Regions Using Satellite Data

Understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of soil salinization is essential for elucidating its driving mechanisms and supporting sustainable land and water management in arid regions. In this study, the Alar Reclamation Area in Xinjiang, a typical desert–oasis transition zone, was selected to investigate the drivers of spatiotemporal variation in soil salinization. GRACE gravity satellite observations for the period 2002–2022 were used to estimate groundwater storage (GWS) fluctuations. Contemporaneous Landsat multispectral imagery was employed to derive the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and a salinity index (SI), which were further integrated to construct the salinization detection index (SDI). Pearson correlation analysis, variance inflation factor analysis, and a stepwise regression framework were employed to identify the dominant factors controlling the occurrence and evolution of soil salinization. The results showed that severe salinization was concentrated along the Tarim River and in low-lying downstream zones, while salinity levels in the middle and upper parts of the reclamation area had generally declined or shifted to non-salinized conditions. SDI exhibited a strong negative correlation with NDVI (p ≤ 0.01) and a significant positive correlation with both irrigation quota and GWS (p ≤ 0.01). A pronounced collinearity was observed between GWS and irrigation quota. NDVI and GWS were identified as the principal drivers governing spatial–temporal variations in SDI. The resulting regression model (SDI = 0.946 − 0.959 × NDVI + 0.318 × GWS) established a robust quantitative relationship between SDI, NDVI and GWS, characterized by a high coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.998). These statistics indicated the absence of multicollinearity (variance inflation factor, VIF < 5) and autocorrelation (Durbin–Watson ≈ 1.876). These findings provide a theoretical basis for the management of saline–alkali lands in the upper Tarim River region and offer scientific support for regional ecological sustainability.