Scenario analysis of cooking fuel choices and CO2 emission reduction for bioenergy assessment in rural South-East Nigeria

Rural households in South-Eastern Nigeria rely heavily on traditional biomass fuels for cooking, contributing significantly to carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and raising concerns about environmental sustainability and public health. This study conducts a scenario-based analysis to quantify CO₂ emission abatement potentials associated with shifts in cooking fuel types and to assess the viability of bioenergy integration within the regional energy mix. The study employs the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model to conduct a comprehensive scenario analysis of cooking energy demand and CO₂ emission abatement potentials through transitions in SE rural household cooking fuel types. Using region-specific household energy consumption data, emission factors, and techno-economic parameters, three scenarios are simulated over a 37-year horizon: i) Baseline (BLS) with continued traditional biomass use; Short-term (STS); and Long-term scenario (LTS) featuring widespread substitution with modern fuels such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and biogas derived from locally available agricultural residues. Scenario simulations reveal that transitioning to modern bioenergy systems and cleaner fuels can achieve up to a 50% reduction in cooking energy demand due to significant energy efficiency gains, cutting an average of about 650 K GJ of energy demand by 2060. Results showed an unusual paradox that an overdependence on biogas (especially in the long term) could yield more emissions compared to other traditional biomass. Thus, the study revealed a proportional mix of cooking fuel is essential to curbing emissions in rural SE of Nigeria to abate about 350 k MtCO₂e by 2060. The findings provide critical policy recommendations.