Assessment of Determinants of Climate Change Resilience Among Agro-pastoral Communities in Kongwa District, Dodoma-Tanzania

Climate change is affecting climate-sensitive sectors including agriculture in developing countries. Tanzania as one of the developing countries is hit by the climate change impacts, especially in semi-arid areas. This study aimed to analyze the agro-pastoralists’ perceptions on climate change, adaptation strategies and determinants of adaptation to climate change of agro-pastoralists. The study was conducted in Kongwa district, Dodoma region in central zone Tanzania. A cross-sectional design was used to collect quantitative data by using structured questionnaires. Two wards, Ugogoni and Mtanana were used in this study where 240 respondents were interviewed under consent using the structured questionnaire. Focused group discussion (FGD) and key informant interviews (KII) were also used. The results showed that most of the agro-pastoralists perceive decrease in rainfalls’ distribution (95.4%), decline in rainfalls’ intensity (88.8%), delay of rainfall (88.8%), early cessation of rains (97.9%), increase in temperatures (91.3%), re-occurrence of floods (74.9%), and droughts (91.3%) over the past 20 years. The mostly used climate change adaptation strategies in crop production were changes of planting dates (98.8%), planting density (96.3%), crop diversification (92.1%), use of improved crop varieties (34.2%), crop rotation (16.3%), and tree planting (10.0%), whereas in livestock production, were livestock diversification (30.8%), storage of feed and crop residues (21.3%), and feeding strategies (10.0%). The binary logistic regression model results showed that the determinants of climate change that significantly influence resilience in Kongwa district were geo-location, with 4.288 odds; age (0.953 odds/ 95.3%), number of livestock owned (1.056 odds), and land size (6.097 odds). The study revealed that livestock sector’s adaptive capacity is lower as compared to crop production sector. The study suggested that government should improve the accessibility to inputs and subsidies, such as improved crop, pasture and animal seeds to foster resilience of agro-pastoralists.