Resilient but declining: drought induced dieback of Aleppo pine stands in western Algeria

Abstract Drought affects forest productivity and tree radial growth in multiple ways. Two major impacts are growth decline and loss of resilience, i.e., the capacity to recover normal growth rates after a drought, which may indicate impending death. Growth decline and dieback processes have been reported for Mediterranean conifers, but information for natural and planted stands under semi-arid conditions is still scarce, particularly across the increasingly arid Maghreb. We addressed this by assessing growth rates, variability and resilience indices in Algerian Aleppo pine ( Pinus halepensis Mill.) stands under Mediterranean sub-humid to semi-arid conditions. Several climate variables and teleconnection patterns (NAO, North Atlantic Oscillation; WeMO, Western Mediterranean Oscillation) were investigated to determine the main drivers of growth decline. Growth resilience indices were calculated at site and tree levels and related to growth trends. Mean basal area increment (BAI) during 2000–2023 was 16.6 cm 2 a −1 . Negative BAI trends occurred for all sites since 2013, as aridification intensified. All stands showed growth decreases during dry years regardless of site conditions or growth rates. Growth was constrained by cold January conditions, dry conditions from the previous winter to summer, and elevated temperatures from late spring to late summer. Long (12-month) droughts peaking in summer suppressed growth, which was also inversely associated with NAO June indices. Growth decline responded to recovery and resistance indices during the 2012 and 2017 droughts. The results show that long-term aridification triggers growth decline despite short-term, post-drought recovery.