Energy Geopolitics and Energy Security of Nepal: Agent-structure Dynamics in the India-China Rivalry in Nepal

A four-day military conflict between India and Pakistan in May 2025 and the unilateral suspension of Indus Water Treaty (IWT) by India has opened energy front in the south Asian security and political dynamism. The global emerging powers China and India need clean energy for their industrial growth and economic sustainability and Nepal is a viable option with huge hydroelectricity potentiality. The core objective of the study is to analyze the energy geopolitics in south Asia and energy security of Nepal in the present regional political context. It also aims at analyzing the existing energy security policies of Nepal. The study adopts Alexander E Wendt’s approach ‘agent-structure problem in international relation’ to analyze the impact on Nepal due to water resource rivalry between India and China in south Asia. Using a descriptive -analytical design primarily based on secondary sources collected from various policy documents, news and academic literatures and one key informant interview (security expert, July 2025), the study finds that energy front is added in the geopolitical rivalry between India and China in south Asia. It also finds India and China are rivaling in water resource of Nepal and India is gaining leverages over the water resource of Nepal. The energy security of Nepal is at high stake if foreign power monopolized the water resources of Nepal. It suggests the adoption of significant energy security strategies on the overall energy security policy of Nepal.