The American-Cuban "thaw" (2008-2016): a shift in vector or limits of the possible?

For more than 50 years, the United States has pursued a regime change strategy in Cuba, while Havana's most sensitive issue has been the preservation of sovereignty and international subjectivity. The period following Raúl Castro's assumption of the presidency of Cuba and the beginning of Barack Obama's presidency in Western analytical and media narratives was termed the "Cuban Thaw." In domestic literature, the term "détente" became more commonly used. The American leadership, for the first time, abandoned its basic approach towards Cuba aimed at dismantling the existing political regime. This coincided with a broader period of a reset in relations with a number of countries, including Russia, Iran, China, and several others. However, U.S.-Cuban relations have always been extremely antagonistic due to geopolitical and historical reasons. Even despite the initial positive momentum, subsequent bilateral contacts were limited to the formal restoration of diplomatic relations and the resumption of cooperation within international organizations, primarily of a regional nature. The paper examines the state of bilateral relations during Raúl Castro's presidency and attempts to forecast their future development. It focuses on the specifics of foreign policy decision-making shaped in both countries. The emphasis is placed on the role of the Cuban diaspora as one of the decisive factors that determined the contradictions in the process of normalizing bilateral relations. The conducted research confirms the hypothesis that the return to anti-Cuban rhetoric under President Trump was a consequence of the specific nature of foreign policy decision-making. The Cuban diaspora, long shaped by dissident immigrants, played a significant role in this context. This contributed to its initially high degree of political engagement compared to other ethnic diasporas. The specificity of foreign policy decision-making in the U.S. is reflected in Congress's efforts to enhance its influence over foreign policy. This effectively led to the creation of certain mechanisms that hindered the normalization of relations with Havana. On the other hand, among the Cuban political elite, there are also significant fears that the benefits of lifting a number of sanctions will not outweigh the risks associated with possible negative consequences from potential pressure from the U.S. on various political and ideological issues.