Strategic coupling in global production networks under geopolitical risk: Chinese lithium investment in Nigeria

• Develops a novel framework to analyse how geopolitical risk shapes strategic coupling in lithium Global Production Networks (GPNs). • Examines Chinese lithium investments in Nigeria as emerging “China + 2″ strategies engaged by firms to mitigate geopolitical risks. • Sheds light on how host and subnational state actors in Nigeria leverage regulatory tools to renegotiate the terms of GPN integration. • Advances debates on critical minerals on how geopolitical risks are actively co-produced through firm–state bargaining and subnational agency in peripheral regions. Extensive studies have examined global production networks (GPNs) for lithium, with a focus on upstream activities in the “Lithium Triangle” (Bolivia, Chile and Argentina) and in Australia. However, the increasing importance of emerging regions in the Global South, particularly the African countries, has been overlooked under the geopolitical risks of the lithium GPN reconfiguration. Drawing on field investigations and in-depth interviews conducted between 2023 and 2025, this paper examines Chinese transnational corporations' (TNCs) investment in Nigeria’s lithium mining and processing activities since the early 2020s, particularly within the context of the escalating Sino-US trade war. Based on case studies in the Kaduna and Nasarawa regions of Nigeria, this study exemplifies how peripheral regions in sub-Saharan Africa have strategically coupled into the lithium GPN by leveraging geographical risks. The paper sheds light on emerging ‘China+2′ strategy engaged by Chinese TNCs in response to the heightened geopolitical uncertainty and supply chain fragmentation. This study contributes to the literature on strategic coupling by highlighting the changing dynamics of geographical risks in the reconfiguration of GPNs in extractive industries.