Global barley production 2025–2035: Forecasting market shifts and policy implications for emerging producers

Barley, which holds a significant share among cereals, is a strategic crop for the feed and food industries as well as the beverage sector. Adaptable to Türkiye’s climatic and soil conditions, barley occupies a noteworthy position in agricultural production systems due to its production volume and diversity of uses. With the growth of the livestock sector, the importance of barley in the compound feed industry has increased; its high energy value and good digestibility have made it a preferred raw material. In the food industry, barley is used in the production of traditional and functional products owing to its richness in dietary fiber. In recent years, with the growing trend toward healthy eating, the consumption of barley flour, bran, and whole grain form has become more widespread. The main objective of this study is to generate production forecasts for the 2025–2035 period using the production data from 1961 to 2023 of prominent barley-producing countries around the world. In the study, the most suitable time series model (ARIMA) was identified for each country, and forecasts for future production were made accordingly. The findings reveal that the center of production power in global barley cultivation is shifting geographically from the west to the east and towards the southern hemisphere. Countries such as Türkiye, Russia, and Australia are expected to increase their production shares, whereas traditional producers like the United States, Germany, and Canada are projected to experience a decline. It is anticipated that Türkiye will hold a more prominent position in global production in the future. The findings clearly indicate a shift in barley global production. While countries traditionally known for barley production, such as the United States, Germany, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Spain, are expected to see a significant decrease in their global production shares over the next decade, countries like Türkiye, Russia, Australia, and Ukraine are projected to achieve notable increases in production volume. Notably, Türkiye’s share in global barley production is estimated to rise from 4% to 6%, signaling a strengthening of the country's position in the global barley market. This development presents strategic opportunities in terms of meeting domestic demand as well as increasing export potential. The forecasts obtained through the ARIMA model not only reflect production trends but also provide guiding data for decision-making processes of policymakers, investors, and sector stakeholders. Therefore, the outcomes of this study serve as a valuable reference for developing data-driven strategies in agricultural production planning.