Effects of selective conscription on the labour market and education: Evidence from Sweden

Conscription is making a comeback, and selective conscription has been argued to be better adapted to future military needs, and thus attractive as a model for countries contemplating reintroduction. This paper estimates the effects of selective conscription on subsequent labour market outcomes and education up to age 34, exploiting a sudden downsizing of the Swedish military in 2004. The results show an increase in unemployment in the short run. Earnings decline substantially at first, recover by age 22, but become negative and statistically significant again after age 30. Educational enrolment is delayed, although educational attainment is unaffected by age 34. The adverse labour market effects and delayed education are driven by individuals with high cognitive ability. In contrast, low-ability conscripts increase their educational attainment, and there is no evidence of negative labour market effects for this group.