From Probability to Coherence_ A Structural History of the Present Intelligence Paradigm

Abstract This paper provides a structural account of the probabilistic paradigm in intelligence research from 1948 to 2025. It argues that probability-based formalisms were historically inevitable given incomplete information, measurement noise, available mathematics, and institutional constraints. However, it shows that probabilistic systems are structurally incapable of supporting persistent identity, deterministic replay, liability, certification, or energetic admissibility. The paper does not critique prior work as erroneous. Instead, it explains why probabilistic intelligence was locally optimal, identifies the structural limits that prevent closure, and derives the forcing conditions that require a transition to coherence-based formalisms. Probability is treated as epistemic compression arising from unresolved structure rather than as an ontological primitive. A coherence-based resolution is presented as the first demonstrated framework satisfying identity, replay, safety, and energetic constraints simultaneously. The paper is intended as a historical and structural analysis of a paradigm transition, not as an attack on prior methodologies.