Machine learning models predict long COVID outcomes based on baseline clinical and immunologic factors
Machine learning models identify patients at risk for developing long COVID based on baseline clinical characteristics. These models guide early interventions, improve patient outcomes, and mitigate the long-term public health impacts of SARS-CoV-2.
Authors
- Grace A. McComsey (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2690-8888)
- Walter L. Eckalbar (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2520-7852)
- Nicolas C. Issa (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6596-0518)
- Lekshmi Santhosh (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9897-3462)
- Luz Torres Altamirano
- Jeremy P. Gygi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8567-7472)
- Bonny D. Alvarenga (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7922-9454)
- Lauren A. Sinko
- Susan Pereira Ribeiro (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3502-1069)
- Charles Langelier (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6708-4646)
- Greg K. Tharp
- William Ruff (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5828-6425)
- Nataliya Melnyk
- Harry Pickering (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2348-5410)
- Saurabh Asthana
- Jeff Milush
- Jarrod Mosier (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5371-0845)
- Kerin Hurley
- Keith Farrugia
- Amer Bechnak
- Michael Adkisson
- J J Rousseau
- Maria C. Bermúdez‐González (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7908-6286)
- Trina Hughes
- Subhasis Mohanty (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3870-2468)
- Alyssa Ward
- Jenny Brook (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5705-1042)
- Tatyana Vaysman
- Elizabeth Beagle
- Allyson Molzahn (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1091-7942)
- Debra Powell (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9917-3160)
- Kerry McEnaney (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0378-3456)
- Jessica Lasky‐Su (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6236-4705)
- Carolyn Leroux
- Caroline Ciric
- James A. Overton (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5139-5557)
- Christina Montesano
- Maimouna D. Murphy
- Akiko Iwasaki (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7824-9856)
- Jennifer A. Fulcher (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9895-8636)
- R.P. Sékaly
- Nathan D. Grubaugh (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2031-1933)
- Chris Bime
- Lauren T. Hewitt (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7270-7679)
- Ebony Nelson
- Albert Icksang Ko (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9023-2339)
- Jessica Cauley
- S. Wimalasena (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8248-4074)
- Ruth R. Montgomery (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8661-4454)
- Mark G. Martens (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3290-6179)
- Legna Betancourt
- Annmarie Hoch (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0836-2164)
- William B. Messer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4381-6347)
- Juan Manuel Carreño (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9039-9275)
- Samuel Yang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1123-9036)
- Zhengchun Lu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4165-1507)
- Arthur Viodé (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3418-734X)
- Benoit Fatou (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0317-0243)
- Priya A. Prasad (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1384-0960)
- Arash Nemati Hayati
- Charles S. Dela Cruz (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5258-1797)
- Carolyn M. Hendrickson (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4662-2385)
- Eran Mick (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7299-808X)
- Ralph Rogers (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0268-0188)
- Zoë L. Lyski (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3631-8072)
- Esther Melamed (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5571-3591)
- Sanya Thomas (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3648-9461)
- Matthew F. Krummel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7915-3533)
- Brandi Johnson
- Carly E. Milliren (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6280-8417)
- Lily Eaker
- Sara Furukawa
- Clara E. Magyar (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2261-0187)
- Alexander J. Beagle (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2291-2612)
- Adeeb Rahman (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8620-3161)
- Xhoi Mitre
- Renee McLin
- Albert C. Shaw (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4970-7640)
- Scott J. Tebbutt (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7908-1581)
- Douglas A. Drevets (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7068-9251)
- Michele A. Kutzler (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5692-5617)
- Jessica E. Rothman (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9961-1092)
- George P. Tegos (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3737-8491)
- Temima Yellin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0009-1907-0336)
- Stephen R. Walsh (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0817-9370)
- Arjun A. Rao (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4480-3190)
- Kieffer Hellmeister
- Patrick van Zalm (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0806-3685)
- Nathan Mege (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4564-7433)
- Shelli Farhadian (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7230-1409)
- Tanzia Shaheen
- Ana C. Chang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3787-4719)
- Kari Christine Nadeau (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2146-2955)
- Bethany Evans
- Sadeed Rashid
- Jacob Usher
- Kevin Mendez (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8832-2607)
- Meenakshi Jha (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6093-871X)
- Jordan P. Metcalf (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4359-5270)
- Raphael Lota
- Kyra Woloszczuk
- Brent Simmons
- Janelle N. Geltman
- Sydney J. Hamilton
- SHARON CHINTHRAJAH
- Jose Humberto Licona
- Kinga K. Smolen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8650-3693)
- Yael Rosenberg‐Hasson (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3284-5732)
- Jun Bai Park Chang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3338-8043)
- Dylan Duchen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5629-2012)
- R. Salehi-Rad
- Michael D. Leipold (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5389-0906)
- J. Singer
- Michaël Desjardins (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4028-8507)
- Bali Pulendran (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6517-4333)
- Manishkumar Patel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7949-5610)
- Scott F. Sieg (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1769-8682)
- Slim Fourati (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6609-7587)
- Charles B. Cairns (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2291-5415)
- D. Esserman
- Neera Ahuja (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2979-7530)
- Hiromitsu Asashima
- Azlann Arnett (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1368-4678)
- Felicity J. Coulter (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0485-8752)
- Miti Saksena (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0678-020X)
- Mitchell Cooney
- Mehmet Saluvan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7670-2450)
- Hady Samaha (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9124-7820)
- Evan Do
- Fernandez-Sesma Ana
- Cole Maguire (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8986-9762)
- Erin M. Scherer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8794-1932)
- Mary Consolo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9095-5913)
- Steven E. Bosinger (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2116-5061)
- Ravi K. Patel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5203-899X)
- Ron Schunk
- Scott Presnell (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9203-6403)
- Pablo Guaman Tipan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0007-3127-7095)
- F. Kheradmand
- Kathryn L. Pellegrini (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5089-5477)
- Cole Shaw
- P Woodruff
- Nicholas C. Semenza (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4989-0847)
- Natalie Izaguirre (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1778-4708)
- Matthew C. Altman (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1784-8505)
- Amy C Sherman (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6075-3990)
- Catherine L. Hough (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6425-0867)
- Andrew Willmore
- Pratik Sinha (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3751-9079)
- Ana Fernandez Sesma
- Hanno Steen
- Jonathan Krauß (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9126-1315)
- Laila Hussaini
- Christina Love
- Jennifer Connors (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9137-0717)
- Katherine F. Beach (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2843-6776)
- Daniel Stadlbauer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6792-7650)
- Carolyn Pope Edwards
- Scott R. Hutton
- Hisaaki Kawabata (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3987-3429)
- Steven M. Holland (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3207-5464)
- Brett Croen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1427-876X)
- Claudia Perdomo
- Arman R. Azad
- Jonasel Roque
- Laurel Bristow (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9050-0057)
- Kerstin Westendorf (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2332-2673)
- Komal Srivastava
- Nina McNair
- Mathew Bell
- Anna Konstorum (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4024-2058)
- Brandon Rogowski
- Austin Sigman
- David J. Neep (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6407-1113)
- Mark A. Atkinson (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8489-4782)
- Ahmad Sadeed Rashid
- Amanda E. Brunton (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4061-5870)
- Natalia Sigal (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2831-7053)
- Lenka Maliskova (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7677-3833)
- Joanna Schaenman (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1174-3961)
- David Joyner
- Heather Tribout (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2204-8764)
- Aneesh K. Mehta (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6552-9162)
- Erna Milunka Kojic
- Ariel Raskin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9110-8217)
- Crystal Nagle
- Ana S. Gonzalez‐Reiche (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3583-4497)
- Carolyn S. Calfee (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9208-6865)
- Logan Pierce (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7123-3501)
- Alvin T. Kho (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9887-312X)
- Cindy Curiel
- John Fournier (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8320-4268)
- Erica Anderson (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0002-6407-4191)
- Dawn C. Ward (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1672-740X)
- Rebecca Rooks (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0007-1137-6707)
- M Wilson
- Aleksandra Leligdowicz (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6055-4644)
- Kristen Ulring
- David Francisco (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1206-7424)
- Monali Manohar (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1869-2645)
- Johnstone Tcheou (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2733-4687)
- Christine Spainhour
- Matthew Strand (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9083-5989)
- Ernie Chen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1573-7577)
- Randi Vita (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8957-7612)
- Alexandra Tong (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0002-7361-1809)
- Naresh Doni Jayavelu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5613-0830)
- Megan Llamas (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7612-4913)
- Levy A. Sominsky (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8084-3187)
- Gayelan Tietje-Ulrich
- Sharvari Bhide
- Dominika Bielak
- Bianca Sierra
- Andreas Coppi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5243-552X)
- Arun K. Boddapati (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7661-8443)
- Alexandra Tsitsiklis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3467-1171)
- Robert W. Bryant
- James N. Kim
- Marisa S. Albert
- Cecilia M. Smith
- Patrice M. Becker (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1170-8587)
- Mariana Bernui
- D. A Elashoff
- Heidi E. Erickson
- Gina Cusimano (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1393-9485)
- Andrew Cheng (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2201-8052)
- Bernadine Panganiban
- Dennis Wylie (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0380-3549)
- David B. Corry (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9729-1016)
- Hui Xie (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4216-2660)
- James Abraham (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3742-4179)
- Iris Chang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0007-1971-8513)
- Rajani Ghale
- Joshua Vasquez (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7165-5739)
- Adriana van de Guchte (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0771-3842)
- Maria Paz (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1236-5571)
- Thomas Hagan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5254-5251)
- Claudia Lentucci
- Catherine A. Blish (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6946-7627)
- Lyle L. Moldawer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9041-9838)
- Deena R. Altman (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1948-3834)
- Tasha Lea
- Brenda Barton
- Al Ozonoff (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4233-5899)
- Kirsten N. Kangelaris (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8152-994X)
- Nadia Siles (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0000-1506-6123)
- Jordan Oberhaus
- Suzanna Chak
- Andrea Fernandes (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2855-4262)
- Ricardo Ungaro
- Gabriela K. Fragiadakis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9703-2591)
- Leqi Xu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6789-4959)
- Ravi Dandekar (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2930-3043)
- Erin Carter (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2744-5312)
- Michael Rainone
- Scott C. Brakenridge (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7327-3718)
- Alison D. Augustine (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0064-9785)
- Connie Cathleen Wilson
- Xiaomei Wang
- Caitlin Syphurs (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0004-5066-3985)
- Thomas Hodder
- Courtney Micheleti
- Tomasz Jancsyk
- George A Yendewa (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4322-8577)
- Bernard Kohr
- Brittney Borresen
- Edward Lee (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0418-1454)
- Monica Kraft (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2626-2183)
- David K. Stevenson (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7127-0281)
- Elias K. Haddad (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4537-8301)
- Pavithra Vijayakumar
- Andrew Schroeder (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8232-7837)
- Viet Thanh Nguyen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1217-780X)
- Ofer Levy (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2606-7484)
- Alejandra E. Jauregui
- Jacob E. Rogers
- Leeba Sullivan
- Joann Diray-Arce
- Bjoern Peters (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8457-6693)
- Allison Nelson
- Zenab Khan
- Jayant V. Rajan
- Nicklaus Rodriguez
- Ana Gonzalez
- M. Fried
- Christopher Huerta
- Omkar Chaudhary
- Brittany Roth Manning
- Subha Sen
- Kai Nie (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7963-8431)
- Jonathan Sevransky
- Yanedth Sanchez Guerrero
- Serena Lee
- B R Brown
- Michelle Conway
- Nicole Sutter
- Meagan Karoly
- Mark Davis
- Wade L. Shulz
- Henna Naz Din
- Pam Schearer
- Judie Sheidy
- Zain Khalil (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5052-588X)
- Estefania Ramires-Sanchez
- Neeta Thakur
- Holden T. Maecker
- Jingjing Qi
- Harm Van Bakel
- Linda N. Gen
- Jayeeta Dutta
- Faheem W. Guirgis
- Nelson I. AgudeloHiguita
- Geoffrey Kelly
- Linda N. Geng
- Steven H. Kleinstein
- I. Michael Goonewardene
- Bushra Samad
- Kari Wong
- Lindsey B. Rosen
- Hiroki Kimura
- Viviana Simon
- Shrikant Pawar
- IMPACC Network
- Kevin Tang
- J. Leland Booth
- Sarah A. R. Siegel
- Nelson I. Agudelo Higuit
- Adreanne M. Rivera
- Xiofang Li
- Sara Morris
- Yujiao Zhao
- Lindsey R. Baden
- Casey P. Shannon
- Vicki Seyfert-Margolis
- Sidney Carrillo
- Anderson Brito
- Edward Lin
- Norman Jones
- Yumiko Abe-Jones
- Shanshan Liu
- Nadine Rouphael
- Brian Lee
- Gagandeep Singh
- Lauren I. R. Ehrlich
- Deanna Lee
- Paul Harris
- Alexandra S. Lee
- Chris Cotsapas
- Haowei Wang
- Lubbertus C. F. Mulder
- M. Catherine Muenker
- David A. Hafler
- Gisela Gabernet
- Maja Artandi
- Seunghee Kim-Schulze
- Greg Michelotti
- Li-Zhen Song
- Matthew L. Anderson
- Elaine F. Reed
- Esio Wunder
- Jing Chen
- Michael Matthay
- Khadir Raddassi
- Simon van Haren
- Giulio Kleiner
- Peter E. Sullivan
- Syim Salahuddin
- Florian Krammer
- H. Patrick Young
- David J. Erle
Institutions
- Brigham and Women's Hospital (US)
- CGIAR (FR)
- Boston Children's Hospital (US)
- La Jolla Institute for Immunology (US)
- Harvard University (US)
- University of Arizona (US)
- University of British Columbia (CA)
- Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences (US)
- Emory University (US)
- University of California, Los Angeles (US)
- Oregon Health & Science University (US)
- Palo Alto University (US)
- University of California, San Francisco (US)
- Baylor College of Medicine (US)
- University of Washington (US)
- Benha University (EG)
- University of South Florida (US)
- University Hospitals of Cleveland (US)
- Yale University (US)
- University of Florida (US)
- The Coordinating Center (US)
- Immunai (United States) (US)
- Metabolon (United States) (US)
- Prevention of Organ Failure (CA)
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (US)
- OU Health
- University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center (US)
- Case Western Reserve University (US)
- Drexel University (US)
- The University of Texas at Austin (US)
- Stanford University (US)
- Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Communications Medicine
- Published
- 2026-01-03
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-025-01230-w
- Citations
- 1
- Primary Topic
- Long-Term Effects of COVID-19
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 39.15
Funders
- Yale University
- Emory University
- University of Washington
- Case Western Reserve University
- Drexel University
- National Institutes of Health
- School of Medicine, Stanford University
- University of California, Los Angeles
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
- David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles