Spatial potential evaluation of ecotourism resources and functional zoning in the Qinghai lake basin

Existing national park zoning studies exhibits significant gaps in integrating ecological sensitivity, tourism resource potential, and particularly the spatiotemporal dynamics of human activities. Against the backdrop of the Qinghai Lake National Park, which encompasses China’s largest inland saltwater lake and serves as the core tourism region of Qinghai Province, this study develops a tri-dimensional evaluation framework of “place, people and things”, where “place”—a multi-factors ecological sensitivity analysis, “people”—Mobile-data-based Active Population Estimation (MAPE) for spatiotemporal behavioral analysis and “things”—a comprehensive tourism resource potential assessment, and ultimately achieve functional zoning through multi-dimensional superposition. Key findings indicate that the overall ecological sensitivity of the basin is relatively high, with highly sensitive and extremely sensitive areas account for 46.24% of the total study area. Tourism potential has a highly uneven distribution, with limited-potential zones covering 42.90% of the basin, while top-level potential areas constitute merely 0.60%. Based on the integrated analysis, a refined five-zone functional system is proposed: strict protection zone, harmonious transition zone, innovative development zone, rational development zone, and stable maintenance zone, while the latter three account for less than 6%, revealing an extreme scarcity of “low ecological sensitivity, high tourism potential, and high tourist flow” areas. Each zone is coupled with differentiated control measures. This research provide quantitative support for the delineation of ecological protection redlines and sustainable tourism planning in Qinghai Lake National Park.