The impact of Russia-Ukraine war on international maritime petroleum trade and tanker fleet productivity

The geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine represents one of the most significant geopolitical disruptions in recent decades, profoundly affecting international petroleum trade flows and tanker fleet operation patterns. This study investigates the impact of this geopolitical event on maritime petroleum trade dynamics by analyzing tanker movement data obtained from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) from 2018 to 2023. Through a systematic evaluation, this study quantifies transformations in global maritime petroleum trade structures and tanker fleet productivity, measured by tonne-miles per deadweight. The findings indicate that, despite sanctions, Russian petroleum exports maintained volumetric resilience, there was a considerable market redistribution from European destinations to Asian, African, and South American markets. This restructuring led to notable shifts in fleet productivity, with significant differences across vessel classes and trade lanes. The findings provide critical implications for asset investment decisions, vessel operation strategies, and the development of energy trade networks. • Maritime petroleum trade pattern during 2018–2023 is examined with a novel dataset • Russian petroleum export volume persists despite the sanctions • Overall fleet productivity for tankers declined during the period • Evidence of Russian petroleum rerouting to Europe via transit points • Changes of maritime petroleum transportation efficiency vary among trading routes