Crop insurance as a climate change adaptation strategy for cotton farmers: the case of Söke district of Aydın province in Türkiye

Adaptation strategies to climate change are important to manage the risks of climate change and to ensure the sustainability of agricultural production. This study focuses on the climate change adaptation strategies of cotton producers in Söke district of Aydın province, the first cotton product registered by the European Union in Türkiye. Primary data from personal interviews with farmers were used for the study. A survey was conducted among 157 farmers from Söke district of Aydın province using simple random sampling. The factors affecting crop insurance, one of the adaptation strategies, were calculated using binary logistic regression analysis. The calculated McFadden's R2 (0.389), Cox & Snell R2 (0.408), and Nagelkerke R2 (0.551) values indicate that the model explains the crop insurance strategy. In this research, the AUC value was calculated as 0.887, which is considered excellent. According to the Hosmer and Lemeshow test result, with Chi-square: 11.439 and p: 0.178, it was determined that the model's fit to the data was good. As a result of the binary logistic regression analysis, it was found that migration and agricultural income had a negative effect on the probability of purchasing crop insurance, while changing irrigation methods, changing spraying times, crop diversification and praying for rain had a positive effect on the probability of purchasing crop insurance. Among the adaptation strategies to climate change, the strategy of product diversification proved to be the most effective factor in crop insurance. To manage the risks in agricultural production, it is essential to implement climate change adaptation strategies holistically. As the share of crop insurance is 60%, it is recommended to inform farmers about crop insurance. In addition, the agricultural frost events in 36 provinces in 2025 show that the scope of crop insurance should be expanded in parallel with the temporal, methodological and quantitative adaptation strategies (spraying, fertilizing, planting, etc.).