Who gets to return? Party politics and the selectivity of European emigrant return policies

Abstract Why do European governments encourage the return of some emigrants but not others? Across the EU, emigrant return policies tend to be highly selective, prioritizing specific emigrants, such as young people, skilled professionals, or entrepreneurs. Drawing on an original dataset of eighty-one national-level emigrant return policies adopted by seventeen EU member states (2004–23), alongside in-depth case studies of Ireland and Portugal, this study investigates how and why governments prioritize certain emigrants for return. The study argues that governments’ ideological outlook, core constituencies, and their strategic positioning in electoral competition play a central role in shaping the design and targeting of policies. The analysis reveals that the party family of the strongest governing party, rather than the government’s position on the left–right spectrum, determines the primary target group of return policies. Social democrats tend to favour workers, liberals prioritize highly skilled professionals and entrepreneurs, while conservatives, Christian democrats, and far-right parties more frequently target families. The case studies further reveal that electoral incentives and timing shape policy targeting, especially in the run-up to national elections. The article contributes to research on migration governance and party politics, highlighting how migration promotion policies, such as emigrant return policies, are not neutral responses to current demographic and economic needs but serve as strategic tools in political competition.