India’s Outer Space Weaponization and Deterrence in South Asia: A Prism of Stability-Instability Paradox

India’s growing outer space weaponization emboldens the idea of the stability-instability paradox in South Asia. In the context of its dual-use space technology, the successful Anti-satellite capability (ASAT) acquired in 2019 was indeed unprecedented for the region. Although the stability-instability paradox is analyzed through the prism of nuclear deterrence in the dominant literature, its implications in the evolving outer space domain remain uncharted territory. This research article delves into the subject with a threefold focus: the shifting calculus of security between India and Pakistan due to India’s outer space weaponization, the triggers of instability in the regional nuclear deterrence domain, and innate institutional constraints in outer space. It adopts a qualitative methodology that encompasses semi-structured interviews with subject specialists, analysis of policy documents, and a review of case studies to identify discursive patterns and shifts in escalation risk perceptions between India and Pakistan. The idea rests on the notion that the weaponization of space by India introduces a newer layer in regional deterrence dynamics by mirroring the logic of avoiding large-scale conflict and enabling low-intensity conflict in other domains. The study identifies a core research gap at the intersection of outer space security and deterrence theory, highlighting the urgency of a robust space governance mechanism capable of mitigating the risks of inadvertent escalation in an increasingly contested orbital environment. The study addresses the main research question: how is the logic of the stability-instability paradox being reshaped amid India’s growing outer space weaponization?