How does the high-standard farmland construction policy drive the transformation of green grain production?

Understanding the impact of the High-Standard Farmland Construction (HSFC) policy on green grain production and its underlying mechanisms is crucial for scientific policy evaluation and promoting high-quality development in the grain industry. Utilizing panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2005 to 2021, this study employs a super-efficiency SBM-GML index model to measure the green total factor productivity (GTFP) of grain. A continuous Difference-in-Differences (DID) model is then applied to assess the policy's impact on grain GTFP. The findings reveal that: (1) China's grain GTFP exhibited a fluctuating upward trend overall, primarily driven by technological progress, yet significant disparities existed among provinces, with scale efficiency emerging as a key constraint in most regions. (2) The HSFC policy significantly promoted green grain production, with notable heterogeneity in its effects. While it effectively spurred technological progress, its impact on pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency was insignificant. The promotional effect was more pronounced in areas with lower land transfer rates, major grain-producing regions, and flat terrain, but was ineffective in steep terrain areas. (3) Mechanism analysis identifies three pathways through which the HSFC policy operates: facilitating moderate-scale operation, strengthening a “grain-oriented” planting structure, and enhancing socialized services for grain production. This study provides a theoretical foundation and empirical evidence for tailoring the HSFC policy to local conditions and advancing sustainable agricultural development.