Multi-ignition fire complexes drive extreme fire years and impacts

Climate change is intensifying fire behavior, with the largest and fastest-spreading fires causing the greatest impacts on people and ecosystems. Yet the mechanisms driving variability and trends in large fires remain poorly understood. Using 12-hour satellite-derived fire tracking data from 2012 to 2023, we show that the merging of separate ignitions into multi-ignition complexes is a key process amplifying fire size and destructive potential across temperate and boreal ecoregions. Multi-ignition fires account for 31% of the burned area in California and 59% in the Arctic-boreal domain, spread faster and persist longer than single-ignition fires, and disproportionately contribute to extreme fire years in California, Canada, and Siberia. They also generate stronger atmospheric feedbacks, produce more pyrocumulonimbus events, and strain firefighting capacity by dispersing suppression resources. Recognizing and accounting for fire-merging dynamics are critical for improving wildfire prediction, risk assessment, and management.

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Publication Details

Journal
Science Advances
Published
2026-01-02
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adx6477
Primary Topic
Fire effects on ecosystems
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Multi-ignition fire complexes drive extreme fire years and impacts

Ajinkya Desai, Tirtha Banerjee, Ziming Ke, Rebecca C. Scholten et al.
Science Advances
Fire effects on ecosystems
article

Multi-ignition fire complexes drive extreme fire years and impacts

Ajinkya Desai, Tirtha Banerjee, Ziming Ke, Rebecca C. Scholten, Yang Chen, Jishi Zhang, Tianjia Liu, Andrea Delgado, Sander Veraverbeke, Douglas C. Morton, Qi Tang, David A. Peterson, James T. Randerson
article en

Abstract

Climate change is intensifying fire behavior, with the largest and fastest-spreading fires causing the greatest impacts on people and ecosystems. Yet the mechanisms driving variability and trends in large fires remain poorly understood. Using 12-hour satellite-derived fire tracking data from 2012 to 2023, we show that the merging of separate ignitions into multi-ignition complexes is a key process amplifying fire size and destructive potential across temperate and boreal ecoregions. Multi-ignition fires account for 31% of the burned area in California and 59% in the Arctic-boreal domain, spread faster and persist longer than single-ignition fires, and disproportionately contribute to extreme fire years in California, Canada, and Siberia. They also generate stronger atmospheric feedbacks, produce more pyrocumulonimbus events, and strain firefighting capacity by dispersing suppression resources. Recognizing and accounting for fire-merging dynamics are critical for improving wildfire prediction, risk assessment, and management.

Science AdvancesVol. 12(1)
University of East Anglia (GB), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (US), United States Naval Research Laboratory (US), Goddard Space Flight Center (US), University of British Columbia (CA), University of California, Irvine (US), Irvine University (US), Desert Research Institute (US), University of Maryland, College Park (US), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 99%
Fire effects on ecosystems
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