Future projections of Germany's car fleet - Development of a stock-flow cohort model under CO2 performance standards and effects on annual fleet composition, energy demand and emissions
• Germany’s car fleet transition is analyzed across five electrification scenarios. • BEVs dominate new sales by 2035, but legacy ICEs delay full decarbonization beyond 2045. • Tailpipe CO 2 emissions could drop up to 98 % by 2050 through electrification • Residual ICE fleet remains without further policy interventions after 2045.
Authors
- Michael Schulthoff (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6627-2744)
- Jelto Lange (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0094-4741)
- Philipp Anstett
- Martin Kaltschmitt
- Marvin Scherzinger
Institutions
- Universität Hamburg (DE)
- Hamburg University of Technology (DE)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Transport Policy
- Published
- 2026-01-02
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.103994
- Primary Topic
- Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00