Predicting spatial patterns of Cuculus canorus under climate change in Türkiye

Climate change is reshaping species distributions worldwide, with migratory birds representing one of the most vulnerable groups in this process. The Common Cuckoo (Cuculus canorus), a species of high ecological importance, is widely distributed across Eurasia but is increasingly threatened by habitat loss and climatic shifts. In this study, we applied the MaxEnt algorithm to predict the current and future distribution of the cuckoo in Türkiye under present and projected climate conditions. In addition to bioclimatic predictors, topographic variables were included in the modeling framework. Pearson correlation analysis was used to minimize multicollinearity, and variable contributions were evaluated through jackknife tests. The model performed strongly (AUC = 0.81), and response curves indicated that temperature and precipitation were the primary determinants of habitat suitability. Projections for the year 2100 under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios revealed substantial contractions of suitable areas, with no new habitat gains. The extent of climatically suitable habitat is predicted to decline from 631001 km² at present to 285035 km² under SSP3-7.0 and to 151822 km² under SSP5-8.5. Losses were most pronounced at lower elevations, consistent with thermophilization and upslope range shifts. The results highlight potential refugia as critical targets for conservation, while also emphasizing the importance of considering host species distribution, habitat connectivity, and migratory stopover sites in management strategies. This study provides the first comprehensive, spatially explicit projection of cuckoo distribution in Türkiye, offering novel insights into the species’ vulnerability to climate change.