Drivers of Changes in Government Expenditure: A Literature Review and Conceptual Framework

Abstract Understanding the variables, which drive the fluctuations in government expenditure is essential for public sector expenditure planning and productive budgeting. Many government targets are either not met or over-budgeted, which often stem from inability to trace and include all the factors that impact government expenditure in the periodic comprehensive planning process. Therefore, the objective of this article is to provide a review of the factors that that drive changes in government expenditure. The methodology approach is conceptual review and development of framework. It first dwells on a critical review of the literature, which are subsequently sieved for key words that tangibly represent the factors that drive government expenditure. Subsequently, the article proceeded to develop a framework of factors, which affect government expenditure. The framework is organised in relational diagram that denotes cause and effect, where the factors are indicated as pointers of causation of changes in government expenditure. It also identifies public policy change as a notable factor to consider as a control variable, hence public policy is a standalone variable in the framework. The article, therefore, paves the way for further research application and expansion of the framework in theoretical and empirical research. It also provides important tool for public sector managers as reference point in planning periodic government expenditure.