Geological Characteristics and a New Simplified Method to Estimate the Long-Term Settlement of Dredger Fill in Tianjin Nangang Region

Long-term settlement of dredger fill presents substantial challenges to infrastructure stability, particularly in coastal areas such as Tianjin Nangang, where liquefied natural gas (LNG) pipelines are vulnerable to deformation caused by differential settlements. This study investigates the geological properties and long-term settlement characteristics of dredger fill in the Tianjin Nangang coastal zone and develops a simplified predictive model for long-term settlement. Comprehensive laboratory analyses, including field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP), revealed a porous, flaky microstructure dominated by quartz and calcite, with mesopores (0.03–0.8 µm) constituting over 80% of total pore volume. A centrifuge modelling test conducted at 70 g acceleration simulated accelerated settlement behavior, demonstrating that approximately 70% of settlements occured within the initial year. The study proposes an enhanced hyperbolic model for long-term settlement prediction, which shows excellent correlation with experimental results. The findings underscore the high compressibility and low shear strength of dredger fill, highlighting the necessity for specific mitigation measures to ensure infrastructure integrity. This research establishes a simplified yet reliable methodology for settlement estimation, providing valuable practical guidance for coastal land reclamation projects.