How state-owned enterprises reduce agricultural carbon emissions: chain mediating effect of technological innovation and resource conservation

The agricultural sector is the second-largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, and reducing agricultural carbon emissions has increasingly become a focus of international climate policy. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2011–2023), our analysis based on a two-way fixed-effects model demonstrates that the development of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) significantly reduces agricultural carbon emissions. Analysis via a chain mediating model reveals that the development of SOEs first enhances agricultural and green technological innovation, which subsequently facilitates resource conservation (reducing the use of pesticides, fertilizers, agricultural films, and agricultural diesel), ultimately leading to a reduction in agricultural carbon emissions. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the effect of SOE development on agricultural carbon emissions reduction is more pronounced in provinces outside the Yangtze River Economic Belt and in regions with large-scale farmland operations. Threshold analysis further indicates that the effect of SOE development on reducing agricultural carbon emissions weakens when population aging exceeds a certain threshold but strengthens when the agricultural industrial structure surpasses another. Finally, analysis using a spatial Durbin model indicates that the development of SOEs significantly reduces agricultural carbon emissions in neighboring regions through spatial spillover effects. Future research should develop differentiated policies for agricultural carbon emissions based on spatial patterns, population aging, farm size, and industrial structure. It should also explore interprovincial low-carbon cooperation models involving SOEs and develop benefit-sharing mechanisms to enhance spatial spillovers.