How Urban Distance Operates: A Nonlinear Perspective on Talent Mobility Intention in the Yangtze River Delta

Based on micro-level job seeker data from 41 cities in China’s Yangtze River Delta, this study employs threshold regression to examine how inter-city distance influences talent mobility. The results reveal that distance exerts a negative impact on mobility intention and moderates the relationship between a destination’s economic level and mobility. Notably, significant threshold effects are identified at 164.1 km and 271.5 km, delineating three spatial regimes. Short-distance flows (<164.1 km) show the highest intensity, driven by strong economic incentives and high mobility. In contrast, medium-distance flows (164.1–271.5 km) prove least attractive due to offsetting effects, while long-distance flows (>271.5 km) rebound slightly as talent selectively targets major economic hubs, with distance exhibiting only weak inhibition. Crucially, these nonlinear patterns remain robust after addressing endogeneity concerns via the 2SLS method, substituting spatial distance with temporal distance, and controlling for housing prices and cultural factors. Heterogeneity analysis further indicates that individuals with bachelor’s degrees, those above age 30, and talent in labor-intensive industries exhibit greater sensitivity to distance. Conversely, knowledge-intensive sectors and top-tier economic cities demonstrate broader spatial tolerance and stronger cross-regional attraction capabilities. These findings provide a quantitative basis for developing differentiated regional talent policies.