NATO’s frontline states in an era of Euro-Atlantic uncertainty

This article examines the multifaceted strategic dilemmas facing North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) frontline states in the face of the deteriorating security situation in Europe and uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump’s second term in office. NATO, widely recognised as the cornerstone of transatlantic security for more than seven decades, is facing a complex geopolitical challenge characterised by a resurgent Russia, the disintegration of the liberal rules-based order, and evolving global threats. The apparent radical shift in US foreign policy under the second Trump administration introduces an additional element of unpredictability with regard to Washington’s commitment to collective defence, burden-sharing expectations, and NATO’s strategic priorities. This analysis delves into the implications of this uncertainty for NATO’s core pillars, including Article 5, defence spending targets, and the alignment of member states’ strategic objectives. In addition, the article focuses on the specific challenges facing NATO’s frontline states (with Poland as a case study), examining their unique geostrategic situation and the adaptation efforts they are undertaking.