“Super-progenitor” species and the distribution of sampled descendants

Abstract The patterns by which ancestral species give rise to descendants offer critical insights into the processes governing evolutionary and ecological change through time. One such pattern, predicted by both theoretical models and empirical studies, is the persistence of long-lived ancestral species that give rise to multiple descendants. While models such as the birth–death process long employed by paleobiologists predict the occurrence of such “super-progenitors,” the extent to which they should appear in fossil clades remains unknown. To address this, I apply a birth–death-sampling model to four marine clades to evaluate the expected prevalence of super-progenitors and the distribution of sampled descendants. I also explore through analytical and simulation-based predictions how variation in preservation, turnover, and net diversification rate influences these expectations. The model predicts that super-progenitors should be common across nearly all of the clades examined, provided that sampling completeness exceeds approximately 50% at the taxon level. Although the threshold excludes some poorly sampled terrestrial groups, my findings suggest that super-progenitors should be expected across a broad array of clades. Continued integration of super-progenitors into phylogenetic inference and models of diversification may thus contribute to a more complete understanding of macroevolutionary pattern and process.