The NPT in the Third Nuclear Age: Reassessing the Treaty’s Relevance amid Emerging Realities

The NPT, once considered a cornerstone of arms control and disarmament, is under increasing strain as the Third Nuclear Age dawns, characterized by technological developments, doctrinal changes, and renewed great-power competition among nuclear-weapon states. From a realist perspective, the paper aims to contend that the core commitment of NPT regarding disarmament pledges, cooperative security, and peaceful nuclear technology sharing as nuclear-weapon states pursue nuclear modernization amidst a relative power struggle. The credibility and effectiveness of NPT have been undermined in the Third Nuclear Age amid strategic mistrust, power asymmetries, and states' technological hedging. The NPT was negotiated and evolved into a discriminatory treaty, and the P5 countries have exhibited bias in their responses when any state has challenged the NPT provisions. Nevertheless, the P5 states have prioritized their national interests over treaty commitments. The deadlock in the NPT review conferences also highlights the growing strategic mistrust between nuclear haves and have-nots. In this context, this paper will adopt a qualitative approach, drawing on both primary and secondary data, to examine key state behaviors, particularly those of P5 countries, vis-à-vis their disarmament pledges and nuclear modernization. The paper uses a case study approach to assess the shift in commitment of nuclear-weapon states during the recent 12-day war in the Middle East. The paper aims to explore the relevance of the NPT in the New Nuclear Age as states witness technological shifts and growing strategic mistrust between P5.